Dortmund vs Real Betis prediction: full analysis and our pick

Real Betis, with 9 points from 9, take on a Dortmund side that is almost unbeatable at home in the Champions League. A clash between two teams that regularly score and concede. Our analysis and our pick.

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Context and what's at stake

With 6 points from 3 games, Borussia Dortmund sit mid-table in the league phase and need a home win to aim for the top 8, which qualifies directly for the round of 16. Betis, back in the Champions League, are off to a perfect start: three games, three wins, 9 points.

This is a genuine top-half clash, between a Dortmund side looking to confirm their home strength and a Betis team out to prove their start is no fluke.

Form and momentum

Dortmund arrive in confidence: five games unbeaten, including a 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on Saturday. Niko Kovač's side press very high: they apply pressure to 49% of opponents' touches in the Champions League, the highest share in the competition.

Manuel Pellegrini's Betis beat Málaga 2-1 at the weekend and have won all three European games, including a 3-2 win at Lille and a 1-0 win over Feyenoord. They know how to suffer and score away from home.

Team news and probable line-ups

Dortmund will be without Kauã Prates (muscle injury), but the squad is otherwise fit. Kovač should stick with his usual 3-4-1-2, with Gregor Kobel in goal and Serhou Guirassy up front.

Betis are missing striker Cucho Hernández (calf) and Junior Firpo (muscle injury). Troy Parrott should lead the line, supported by Isco and Abde Ezzalzouli. Former Dortmund defender Marc Bartra, dominant in the air (15 of 18 aerial duels won in this season's UCL), will be a key man at the back.

Head-to-head

The two clubs have very rarely met in European competition, and sources disagree on their history, so we do not rely on head-to-head for this pick. The most telling figure concerns Dortmund at home: they have lost just 2 of their last 24 Champions League games at Signal Iduna Park.

Keys to the game

Serhou Guirassy is the man in form: 4 Champions League goals this season, joint top scorer in the competition. Against a Betis defence that will be rushed by the German press, he will get chances.

But Dortmund also leave space: they have conceded at least once in each of their three European games. And Betis have the tools to exploit it with Isco, directly involved in a goal in each of his last five UCL games (3 goals, 2 assists), and Abde's pace on the flank.

The numbers point the same way: both teams have scored in 7 of Betis' last 10 games in all competitions. An open game with goals at both ends is the most likely scenario.

Our prediction

Dortmund are slight favourites thanks to their home strength, but Betis score everywhere and the German defence has yet to keep a clean sheet in the UCL this season. Our pick: both teams to score.

Safer alternative: Dortmund or draw (double chance), which covers Borussia's resilience at Signal Iduna Park.

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FAQ

Sources : Sports Mole – avant-match · WhoScored – statistiques · Hooligan Soccer – avant-match · MightyTips – statistiques

This prediction is an opinion, not a guarantee. Only bet what you can afford to lose.