Sevilla vs Alavés prediction: full analysis and our pick

Sixth-placed Sevilla host Alavés to open LaLiga Matchday 12. Both sides were beaten heavily last weekend and need a response at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. Here is our analysis and our pick.

💡 Play this pick with boosted odds at BetPortal:

Context and what's at stake

Sevilla get LaLiga Matchday 12 under way on Friday night. The Andalusians are sixth on 17 points (five wins, two draws, four defeats) and welcome Alavés, who sit 11th on 12 points (three wins, three draws, five defeats). A home win would stretch the gap to eight points.

For Sevilla, the aim is to stay in the hunt for the European places. For Alavés, coached since March 2026 by Quique Sánchez Flores, himself a former Sevilla manager, the priority is to stop the rot before they slide into the bottom half. On paper it is a mid-table fixture, but both teams badly need a reaction.

Form guide

Neither side arrives in good shape. Sevilla lost 3-1 at Getafe on Sunday. Kike Salas put them ahead in the 19th minute, but they collapsed late on as Enes Ünal (68'), Martín Satriano (73') and Orel Mangala (90+4') turned the game around. That result sums up their main weakness this season: a leaky defence that has conceded 19 goals in 11 games, more than the 17 they have scored.

Alavés had an even worse weekend, thrashed 6-1 by Barcelona. That heavy loss dents a record that was already middling, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. Still, the Basque side are hard to break down when organised, and they lean on Lucas Boyé, whose five league goals are the best tally in either squad. Mariano, with four assists, is their chief creator.

The underlying numbers are fairly even. Sevilla have attempted 108 shots this season and Alavés 107, while the two sides have completed a similar volume of passes (3,841 against 3,758). The gap in the table therefore owes more to efficiency in key moments than to a big difference in output, which is another reason to be wary of backing Sevilla to win outright.

Team news and predicted line-ups

Sevilla have several fitness doubts. Peque has a left hamstring problem and is being monitored pending further tests. Isaac Romero, the club's top scorer with three goals, has knee pain from a knock suffered at Getafe and missed group training early in the week, as did Kike Salas, who is on a load-management plan. Fofana, substituted at Getafe with hip discomfort, trained normally, which is good news given his three assists this season.

Alavés coach Quique Sánchez Flores has confirmed two absences for the trip. Comuniate's predicted line-ups: Sevilla – Vlachodimos; Juan Iglesias, Andrés Castrín, Kike Salas, Gabriel Suazo, Agoumé, Guridi (or Isaac Romero), Fofana, Rubén Vargas (or Ejuke), Lucas Stassin, Félix Correia. Alavés – Sivera; Ángel Pérez, Tenaglia, Koski, Jonny (doubtful), Pablo Ibáñez, Antonio Blanco, Abde Rebbach, Denis Suárez (or Aleña), Toni Martínez (or Mariano), Lucas Boyé.

Head-to-head

Last season Alavés won the first meeting 1-0, before the sides drew 1-1 at the Sánchez-Pizjuán in February 2026, with Djibril Sow scoring for Sevilla and Toni Martínez equalising. Two tight, low-scoring games that suggest this fixture rarely turns into a shoot-out.

Alavés have not won in Seville since January 2024, when they triumphed 3-2. Recent history points to a close contest, with the home side holding a slight edge.

Keys to the match

The first key is Sevilla's defensive response. They fell apart late at Getafe, and a negative goal difference (-2) is unusual for a side sitting sixth. If they tighten up, they have enough going forward, notably through Fofana and Stassin, to settle the game.

The second is how Alavés recover mentally from the Barcelona hammering. Sánchez Flores is likely to prioritise a compact block, which could make for a cagey, tactical evening. Boyé remains the main threat: with five goals he carries much of the Basque attack. Finally, the availability of Isaac Romero and Peque will affect Sevilla's options off the bench.

Discipline could also play a part. Sevilla have already collected 28 yellow cards and four red cards in 11 league games, against 20 yellows and one red for Alavés, according to LaLiga's figures. In a match where the hosts will have to chase the result while staying solid, keeping eleven men on the pitch will be essential. The officiating team is led by Luis Bestard Servera.

Our prediction

Sevilla have home advantage, a five-point cushion and the deeper squad, but their defensive frailty makes an outright win less clear-cut than the table suggests. The last two meetings (1-0 and 1-1) were also very tight. Our pick is the double chance Sevilla or draw (1X), with 3/5 confidence.

Complementary option: under 3.5 goals, which fits the recent head-to-head and the likelihood of a cautious Alavés after their heavy defeat. As always, stake sensibly: no analysis can guarantee an outcome.

Prefer crypto or a bigger game library? Velobet is our #2.

FAQ

Sources : LaLiga – Sevilla FC vs Deportivo Alavés (jornada 12) · LaLiga – Getafe CF 3-1 Sevilla FC · LaLiga – Résultats de la 11e journée · Comuniate – Alineaciones probables de la jornada 12 · Comuniate – Latest on Kike Salas, Fofana and Isaac Romero · Sports Mole – Sevilla vs Alavés (février 2026) · EITB – Quique Sánchez Flores, new Alavés coach

This prediction is an opinion, not a guarantee. Only bet what you can afford to lose.